Vampires exist!

Yes, people, they do! Or at least they might exist and their existence does not constitute any contradiction to modern science.

Well, there are plenty blood-sucking animals found in nature, and even humans need to drink the blood from their own spices sometimes just to survive. So, why cannot vampires (the creatures from the myths and legends, as we tend to think of them) exist too?

Most scientists use simple math to prove that the existence of vampires is not possible. Their line of argumentation is the following:

Assume that a vampire needs to feed only once a month (we ignore the mortality rate, since it is irrelevant here). When this process occurs, another vampire is created. If the countdown starts in 1600 AD or some other time around that (on the 1^st of January 1600 the world’s population was 536 870 911), then by February 1600 there would be two vampires (one who turned a human into vampire to start with and another one who was a human but became a vampire after the encounter with a vampire). In March 1600 there would be four vampires in existence, and in April 1600 – eight vampires. Therefore, some scientists say, each month the number of vampires doubles and after n months there are 2^n vampires which gives us a geometric progression with ratio 2.

As some of you might know, the geometric progression is increases at a very quick pace and if you sit with a pencil and paper and calculate it for our vampires example, you will arrive to the conclusion that after 30 months there would be no humans left – everyone would be turned into a vampire and the humanity would be wiped out by June 1602. Even if human birth rate is included into our calculations, it remains a very small fraction deaths caused by the vampires and would have prolonged the extinction of human race by just one month. Therefore, some scientists conclude, vampires cannot exist, since their existence contradicts the existence of human beings. This logical proof is of a type known as reductio ad absurdum, that is, reduction to the absurd.

However, if one starts digging dipper, everything is not that straightforward. Some fiction authors, Stephenie Meyer’s “Twilight series”, Charlaine Harris’s “Sookie Stockhouse (Southern Vampire) series”, “True Blood” (TV series) and Elizabeth Kostova’s “The Historian” show the world where vampires peacefully co-exist with humans.

In Stephenie Meyer’s “Twilight series” vampires can tolerate the sunlight, interact with humans (even fall in love with them) and drink animals’ blood to survive. Of course, they have to live in secrecy and pretend to be human beings. In “True Blood” TV series, however, a world is shown where vampires and humans live side-by-side and are aware of each other. Vampires can buy synthetic blood of different blood types that is sold in bottles and can be bought in every grocery store, bar or gas station. They cannot walk during daytime, so they usually come out at night. Humans also find use of vampires’ essence – vampires’ blood (called “V”) is a powerful hallucinogenic drug that is sought by humans and traded on the black market (sometimes humans capture vampires with the help of silver chains or harnesses and then kill them by draining their blood). Some humans even seek sex with vampires (vampires are stronger and faster than humans and can provide superb erotic experience). There is a possibility to turn a human being into a vampire, but it takes time and effort.

In Elizabeth Kostova’s novel “The Historian”, vampires are rare although real and do not reveal themselves to humans too often (except for the librarians whom for whom they seem to have a strange passion). Their food ratios are limited and they spend lots of time brooding in their well-hidden tombs.

Let us assume that at the time of the events described in the first book of the series, “Dead Until Dark” (2001), the world’s vampire hypothetical population was around five million (the population of the state of Louisiana in 2001 we arbitrarily use in our calculations). The initial conditions of the Harris-Meyer-Kostova model are the following: five million vampires, 6 159 million people, there are organized groups of vampire “drainers”.

Our calculations yield that the human population will be growing until 2046 when it reaches its peak of 9.6 billion people, whereupon it will be declining until 2065 until it reaches its bottom at 6.12 billion people. This process will repeat itself continuously. The vampire population will be declining until 2023 when it reaches its minimum of 289 thousand vampires, whereupon it will be growing until 2055 until it reaches its peak at 397 million vampires. This process will also repeat itself continuously and we will end up with a cyclical system of human-vampire co-existence

Under certain conditions, the Harris-Meyer-Kostova model seems plausible and allows for the existence of vampires in our world. Peaceful co-existence of two spices is a reality. However, this symbiosis is very fragile and whenever the growth rate of human population slows down, the blood thirst of vampires accelerates, or vampire drainers become too greedy, the whole system lies in ruins with just one population remaining.

There are more interesting implications to our study: consider for example the organized groups of vampire hunters (“Buffy the Vampire Slayer”) or superhero hunters (“Blade”). The results seem even more interesting and all clues lead to the one simple fact – vampires might co-habitate with humans and modern science cannot refute their existence! Please see our poster for more information and turn to us with your questions and comments!

Happy Halloween and be careful not to bump into a vampire on your way to the costume party tonight! :)

WS and EL

Lunar phases and crimes: do werewolves exist?

For quite some time now, scientists have been wondering whether there has been any connection between phases of the moon and crime rates. Moon, by some accounts, is massive object in the sky that affects, for example, the cycle of tidal waves or the growth of plants. Some mentally unstable individuals claim to be attracted by the full moon, others experience sleep disorders and anxiety. Artists are fascinated by the full moon and its depiction might be found on many famous works of art (for instance, Van Gough's). There have been many recorded cases of sleepwalking caused by what doctors believe to be the change in moon cycles. For many people the causality is straightforward: the moon attracts the Earth's waters and governs its seas' and oceans' tides and because human body consists of 80% of liquids, why should not the moon attract these liquids too?

There are lots of studies dealing with what is called “the lunar effect”. For instance, Templer, Veleber, and Brooner (1982) claimed in their study that an unusual number of traffic accidents occurred during the evenings right around the full and new moons (although later the same researchers came up with an explanation that during the time period covered in their study a disproportionate number of full and new moons felt on weekends and traffic accidents are always higher on weekends). A study of homicides in Dade County, Florida (Lieber and Sherin, 1972) found an upsurge in killings in the 24 hours before and after the full moon. Other researchers, however, argued that the Dade County researchers employed dubious statistical methods (when the numbers were reevaluated, the pattern disappeared altogether).

Rotton and Kelly (1985) conducted a meta-analysis of 37 studies of the moon's effect on things like psychiatric admissions, suicides and crime (they called it BILE (Belief in Lunar Effects)). The researchers found that the moon accounted for no more than 0.03 of 1 percent of the monthly variation. The results of the BILE study indicated that there was a greater belief in lunar effects in the older participants than in the younger ones. The researchers also determined that belief in lunar effects appears to be based on age and not on social class or education. Another study (Jorgenson, 1981) concluded that persons with an external locus of control were more likely to believe in lunar effects on human behavior than would persons who possess an internal locus of control. Rotton, Kelly, and Elortegui did a follow-up study in 1986 to determine if belief in lunar effect on human behavior was more predominant in police officers and people working in psychiatric areas than among other people. It turned out that police officers exhibited a high belief in lunar effect as opposed to a lower belief by regular people. However, psychiatric care workers did not seem to give any credit to lunar effect. The explanation might be that they were influenced by articles in recent scientific journals regarding research being done in this area.

Most recently, Leflet (2009) examined a correlation between lunar phases, criminal activity and crisis calls. He conducted a study of individuals arrested by law officials and emergency calls made within the St. Joseph, Missouri area for a two-month period beginning July 17, 1999, and ending September 12, 1999. On the basis of the study, he concluded that common folklore concerning the effect of the changes in lunar phase and human behavior is unsubstantiated. However, the study had one limitation: namely that the observation period was conducted for two months, which is a relatively short period of time.

In spite of all that, there definitely should be some connection (and it probably is), however our story twists here to examine a quite more bizarre causality. We would like to look at the available data of crime rates for various countries and by comparing and matching the crime statistics (especially murder statistics) with phases of full moon try to answer the question: Would the existence of werewolves be possible in the world we live in?

Unlike vampires, werewolves are far more primitive creatures by all accounts. They ravish in the depth of the forests, kill animals and people and their bite might turn a human into a werewolf. In addition, unlike vampires who are in that state permanently, werewolves do not differ from humans most of the time. Turning into a wolf (or a beer or a jaguar) is triggered by the full moon and usually happens once a month. According to the most of the accounts described in popular literature, comic books and films, many werewolves do not actually know they are werewolves because their memory is gone every time they transform themselves from their human to their animal form and back (see Jack Nicolson's "The Wolf").

It is not completely clear how they multiply, although the werewolf gene might be transferred by bloodlines (see Stephanie Meyer’s “Twilight Saga” for instance). Therefore, for the purpose of this research we can assume that the only way werewolves might strengthen their numbers, is by biting humans and turning them into werewolves. In most of the cases, however, werewolves kill their victims.

Therefore, a sudden surge in crime rate during full moon phases in various countries, controlled by the place of occurrence (forested areas might be the best candidate for werewolves’ appearance), might provide us with a good lead in our attempt to answer the question about the existence of such creatures as werewolves.

We are going to give it a thought (and conduct our research using all available data we will be able to get our hands on) and inform all our blog readers about our results soon.

Keep reading our blog and see you later, alligators (or werewolves)?